OCTOBER JOBS REPORT: SLOWING INFLATION AND HISTORICALLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATE THE U.S. HAS ARRIVED AT A “SOFT LANDING”

By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

Job growth in October was hampered by two hurricanes and two major labor strikes, producing just 12,000 new jobs, but the economy continues to grow at a modest pace.

With inflation slowed to  2.41 percent and unemployment remaining historically low, many economists agree that the U.S. has achieved a “soft landing” – bringing inflation under control without triggering a recession.

Bernard E. Anderson, PhD

Whitney M. Young Professor Emeritus,
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Chief Economic Advisor,
National Urban League

U.S. employment increased by 254,000 in September, reflecting an economy growing at a stable, balanced rate.

While the overall unemployment rate changed little at 4.1%, the Black unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, bringing the Black/white ratio to 1.54, down from 1.60 in August and significantly down from the previously persistent 2:1 ratio. 

The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.7%.  Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction.  There was little change in employment in other major industries. Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% month over month and 4.1%  year over year.

Bernard E. Anderson, PhD

Whitney M. Young Professor Emeritus,
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Chief Economic Advisor,
National Urban League

Bernard E. Anderson, PhD

Whitney M. Young Professor Emeritus,
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania

Chief Economic Advisor,
National Urban League

July's modest job creation, coupled with evolving labor market tightness, generated improvement in racial employment opportunities.

Over the past several years during the post-pandemic revival of the economy the Black/White gap in unemployment narrowed to 1.63, much below the previously long-term 2:1 ratio.  The Hispanic unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3 percent.

The U.S. added 206,000 jobs in June, reflecting steady modest growth in the economy boosted by consumer spending.

The modest growth rate, coupled with slowing wage growth is consistent with slowly declining inflation. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to reduce interest rates before September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

It’s steady as we go in the midst of a heated presidential campaign.

Concerningly, Black employment declined by 73,000 while white employment grew by 173,000. At the same time, Black unemployment rose by 29,000 while white unemployment dipped only slightly by 7,000. The racial disparity in the labor market raised the Black/white unemployment gap to 1.80, drifting back to the previously persistent 2:1 ratio.

The overall unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1% percent.

By Bernard E. Anderson, PhD
Whitney M. Young Professor Emeritus,
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Chief Economic Advisor, National Urban League

With an unexpectedly high 292,000 jobs produced in May, the nation’s economy remains on the path of modest growth in the midst of sticky inflation, with a better balance between job openings, hiring, and labor turnover.