September Jobs Report: Delta Continues to Hamper Economic Recovery

The September Jobs Report reiterates once again that economic recovery is not possible without bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Only expanded vaccination of the population  will create health conditions that are conducive to steady, balanced economic growth.

The labor market reflects the reluctance of many workers who were laid off when the pandemic struck to return to work, fearing they might contract the virus.

The slower than expected job growth in September underscores the urgency of enacting the infrastructure and budget reconciliation packages, which together could create 2 million jobs by mid-decade, and provide support for as many as 4 million jobs per year over the course of the 10-year budgeting window, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

The September Jobs Report shows that participation of women in the workforce continues to decline, largely because of a lack of reliable, affordable child care.  The infrastructure bill addresses this barrier by promising universal pre-kindergarten and a 4-year extension of current child-tax credits.

The number of long-term unemployed declined by 469,000 to 2.7 million, and the U-6 -- the “real unemployment rate” or the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged from seeking jobs -- dipped down to 8.5 %.  The modest rate of job creation leaves total employment  5 million lower than the pre-pandemic peak in early 2020.

With the white unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and the Black rate at 7.9 percent, the racial employment  disparity remains near the persistent 2:1 gap.

Business activity in person-to-person industries like leisure and hospitality showed modest growth, reducing the demand for labor.  Labor shortages exacerbated hiring in growing areas of business activity.

Consumer spending was steady in retail trade and services generating little job growth.  Manufacturing lagged because of supply chain bottlenecks, a development that both constrained production and contributed to increased product prices.

The August estimate of job creation was revised upward to 366 thousand but there was little change in the labor force participation rate, 61.8 %; the employment population ratio dipped down to 58.7 %.

Overall the economic outlook is promising though clouded by several issues that create uncertainty about the pace and pattern of recovery from the pandemic. These are:

The uptick in inflation
Federal Reserve withdrawal of monetary accommodation,
Widespread labor shortages,
The size and composition of inf
rastructure and budget reconciliation bills now pending in Congress, and
The federal debt limit.

With these economic conditions, there is major uncertainty about the outcome of negotiations over fiscal policy, e.g., the $ 1.4 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the $ 3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill. The size and scope of spending generated by these bills will have a major impact on the rate of economic growth over the next decade.

 The September Jobs Report reiterates once again that economic recovery is not possible without bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Only expanded vaccination of the population  will create health conditions that are conducive to steady, balanced economic growth.

The labor market reflects the reluctance of many workers who were laid off when the pandemic struck to return to work, fearing they might contract the virus.

The slower than expected job growth in September underscores the urgency of enacting the infrastructure and budget reconciliation packages, which together could create 2 million jobs by mid-decade, and provide support for as many as 4 million jobs per year over the course of the 10-year budgeting window, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

The September Jobs Report shows that participation of women in the workforce continues to decline, largely because of a lack of reliable, affordable child care.  The infrastructure bill addresses this barrier by promising universal pre-kindergarten and a 4-year extension of current child-tax credits.

The number of long-term unemployed declined by 469,000 to 2.7 million, and the U-6 -- the “real unemployment rate” or the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged from seeking jobs -- dipped down to 8.5 %.  The modest rate of job creation leaves total employment  5 million lower than the pre-pandemic peak in early 2020.

With the white unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and the Black rate at 7.9 percent, the racial employment  disparity remains near the persistent 2:1 gap.

Business activity in person-to-person industries like leisure and hospitality showed modest growth, reducing the demand for labor.  Labor shortages exacerbated hiring in growing areas of business activity.

Consumer spending was steady in retail trade and services generating little job growth.  Manufacturing lagged because of supply chain bottlenecks, a development that both constrained production and contributed to increased product prices.

The August estimate of job creation was revised upward to 366 thousand but there was little change in the labor force participation rate, 61.8 %; the employment population ratio dipped down to 58.7 %.

Overall the economic outlook is promising though clouded by several issues that create uncertainty about the pace and pattern of recovery from the pandemic. These are:

The uptick in inflation
Federal Reserve withdrawal of monetary accommodation,
Widespread labor shortages,
The size and composition of inf
rastructure and budget reconciliation bills now pending in Congress, and
The federal debt limit.

With these economic conditions, there is major uncertainty about the outcome of negotiations over fiscal policy, e.g., the $ 1.4 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the $ 3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill. The size and scope of spending generated by these bills will have a major impact on the rate of economic growth over the next decade.

 The September Jobs Report reiterates once again that economic recovery is not possible without bringing the COVID-19 pandemic under control. Only expanded vaccination of the population  will create health conditions that are conducive to steady, balanced economic growth.

The labor market reflects the reluctance of many workers who were laid off when the pandemic struck to return to work, fearing they might contract the virus.

The slower than expected job growth in September underscores the urgency of enacting the infrastructure and budget reconciliation packages, which together could create 2 million jobs by mid-decade, and provide support for as many as 4 million jobs per year over the course of the 10-year budgeting window, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

The September Jobs Report shows that participation of women in the workforce continues to decline, largely because of a lack of reliable, affordable child care.  The infrastructure bill addresses this barrier by promising universal pre-kindergarten and a 4-year extension of current child-tax credits.

The number of long-term unemployed declined by 469,000 to 2.7 million, and the U-6 -- the “real unemployment rate” or the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged from seeking jobs -- dipped down to 8.5 %.  The modest rate of job creation leaves total employment  5 million lower than the pre-pandemic peak in early 2020.

With the white unemployment rate at 4.2 percent and the Black rate at 7.9 percent, the racial employment  disparity remains near the persistent 2:1 gap.

Business activity in person-to-person industries like leisure and hospitality showed modest growth, reducing the demand for labor.  Labor shortages exacerbated hiring in growing areas of business activity.

Consumer spending was steady in retail trade and services generating little job growth.  Manufacturing lagged because of supply chain bottlenecks, a development that both constrained production and contributed to increased product prices.

The August estimate of job creation was revised upward to 366 thousand but there was little change in the labor force participation rate, 61.8 %; the employment population ratio dipped down to 58.7 %.

Overall the economic outlook is promising though clouded by several issues that create uncertainty about the pace and pattern of recovery from the pandemic.

These are:

• The uptick in inflation
• Federal Reserve withdrawal of monetary accommodation,
• Widespread labor shortages,
• The size and composition of infrastructure and budget reconciliation bills now pending in Congress, and
• The federal debt limit.

With these economic conditions, there is major uncertainty about the outcome of negotiations over fiscal policy, e.g., the $ 1.4 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the $ 3.5 trillion budget reconciliation bill. The size and scope of spending generated by these bills will have a major impact on the rate of economic growth over the next decade.