By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

The July employment situation report, released a day early due to the Independence Day holiday, confirms that the U.S. labor market remains stable, though it continues to reflect signs of deceleration amid a clouded economic outlook. Unemployment remains low, and layoffs are modest, yet the momentum in hiring is slowing as businesses contend with persistent policy uncertainty and the looming expiration of a critical tariff pause.

By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

The May jobs report shows that while the labor market continues to expand, its pace is slowing under the weight of growing economic uncertainty. Employers added 132,000 jobs in May—less than in previous months—but enough to signal continued economic activity. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent, and while average hourly wages rose by 15 cents—an 8.4 percent increase over the past year—the overall employment picture is showing signs of softening.

The labor force participation rate ticked down to 62.4 percent, and the employment-to-population ratio fell to 59.7 percent. These declines suggest that fewer people are working relative to the size of the population, and that some individuals may be stepping away from the labor force altogether.

By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.

Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania,
and Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, underscoring the ongoing resilience of the labor market even as new economic threats loom on the horizon. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, reflecting continued labor market stability. Labor force participation edged up slightly to 62.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio remained at 60.0 percent.

However, long-term unemployment rose by 200,000 to 1.674 million people, now accounting for 23.5 percent of all unemployed workers. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and marginally attached workers, ticked between 7 and 8 percent—an indicator of lingering slack in the labor market.

Bernard E. Anderson, Ph D
Senior Economic Adviser, National Urban League, and
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

January’s Jobs Report showing 143,000 new jobs shows a strong labor market moving forward in a stable, balanced growing economy.

Employment grew for both Black and White workers, but Black unemployment rose slightly while White unemployment remained little changed. As a result, the Black/White unemployment differential edged up to 1.77, still below the previously persistent 2:1 ratio.  Average hourly wages grew 0.5 percent to $ 35.87.

By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, has slowed significantly, declining from a peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022 to just 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October 2024. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also eased to 2.8 percent, down from a high of 5.6 percent in February 2022. The data suggest continued progress in stabilizing the economy while avoiding the feared "hard landing."

OCTOBER JOBS REPORT: SLOWING INFLATION AND HISTORICALLY LOW UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATE THE U.S. HAS ARRIVED AT A “SOFT LANDING”

By Bernard E. Anderson, Ph.D.
Whitney M. Young, Jr. Professor Emeritus, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and Senior Economic Advisor, National Urban League

Job growth in October was hampered by two hurricanes and two major labor strikes, producing just 12,000 new jobs, but the economy continues to grow at a modest pace.

With inflation slowed to  2.41 percent and unemployment remaining historically low, many economists agree that the U.S. has achieved a “soft landing” – bringing inflation under control without triggering a recession.